New Mexico
Men - Women
2012 - 2013 - 2014
Switch to All-time Team Page
RankNameGradeRating
13  Luke Caldwell SR 31:09
52  Adam Bitchell SR 31:34
70  Pat Zacharias JR 31:42
208  Sean Stam SR 32:13
254  Elmar Engholm SO 32:24
279  Ross Matheson JR 32:28
432  Donovan Torres SO 32:51
651  Alex Cornwell JR 33:17
791  Graham Thomas FR 33:31
1,116  Jake Shelley JR 34:01
National Rank #11 of 311
Mountain Region Rank #4 of 18
Chance of Advancing to Nationals 97.6%
Most Likely Finish 9th at Nationals


National Champion 0.2%
Top 5 at Nationals 7.5%
Top 10 at Nationals 34.7%
Top 20 at Nationals 83.2%


Regional Champion 0.4%
Top 5 in Regional 90.3%
Top 10 in Regional 100.0%
Top 20 in Regional 100.0%


Race Performance Ratings


Times listed are adjusted ratings based on performance compared to other runners in race.


RaceDateTeam Rating Luke Caldwell Adam Bitchell Pat Zacharias Sean Stam Elmar Engholm Ross Matheson Donovan Torres Alex Cornwell Graham Thomas Jake Shelley
Notre Dame Invitational (Blue) 10/04 602 31:10 31:57 31:54 34:18 33:34 32:52 33:08 32:25 34:11
Wisconsin adidas Invitational 10/19 442 31:09 31:28 31:43 32:03 32:22 32:42 33:26 34:08
Mountain West Championships 11/01 435 31:28 31:34 31:46 31:58 32:07 32:28 32:54 33:41 33:52
Mountain Region Championships 11/15 391 31:31 31:32 31:40 31:51 31:54 32:33 32:49
NCAA Championship 11/23 413 30:49 31:32 31:28 32:24 32:44 32:08 33:09





NCAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.



Team Results

Advances to RoundAve FinishAve Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31
NCAA Championship 97.6% 13.5 380 0.2 0.7 1.2 2.2 3.2 4.6 5.0 5.5 6.2 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.3 5.2 4.8 4.0 4.0 3.6 3.7 3.0 2.8 2.3 2.0 1.2 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.2 0.1
Region Championship 100% 4.2 124 0.4 2.7 13.3 52.7 21.2 8.2 1.5 0.0



Individual Results

NCAA ChampionshipAdvances to RoundAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Caldwell 99.7% 18.1 0.2 0.6 1.4 2.9 3.1 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.8 4.2 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.2 2.3 2.4 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.7 1.7
Adam Bitchell 98.5% 54.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.0 1.1
Pat Zacharias 97.9% 71.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4
Sean Stam 97.6% 147.5
Elmar Engholm 97.6% 172.6
Ross Matheson 97.6% 181.1
Donovan Torres 97.6% 216.7


RegionalAve Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Luke Caldwell 5.1 1.5 13.6 13.5 11.3 9.3 8.2 6.1 5.6 5.1 3.9 3.2 2.6 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.5
Adam Bitchell 14.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 2.0 3.7 3.7 5.3 5.2 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.4 4.8 4.0 4.5 4.0 3.7 3.2 3.2 2.8 2.3 2.4 1.7 1.6
Pat Zacharias 18.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.2 1.5 2.1 2.6 4.1 4.6 4.5 5.0 5.2 4.9 4.5 3.9 4.6 4.2 4.0 3.8 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.4
Sean Stam 37.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.8 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.2
Elmar Engholm 44.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.8
Ross Matheson 47.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2
Donovan Torres 58.9




NCAA Championship Selection Detail

Total
Region Finish Chance of Finishing Chance of Advancing Auto At Large Selection No Adv Auto At Large Region Finish
1 2 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13
1 0.4% 100.0% 0.4 0.4 1
2 2.7% 100.0% 2.7 2.7 2
3 13.3% 100.0% 6.4 4.4 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 13.3 3
4 52.7% 100.0% 22.4 15.4 7.7 3.2 1.5 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 52.7 4
5 21.2% 98.6% 1.0 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.4 2.1 1.9 3.4 4.0 3.2 1.5 0.3 20.9 5
6 8.2% 85.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.6 1.9 1.2 7.0 6
7 1.5% 44.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.8 0.7 7
8 0.0% 0.0 8
9 9
10 10
11 11
12 12
13 13
14 14
15 15
16 16
17 17
18 18
Total 100% 97.6% 0.4 2.7 6.4 26.9 18.1 8.9 4.2 2.6 2.5 3.1 2.9 4.7 5.8 5.0 3.7 2.4 3.1 94.5




Points



At large teams are selected based on the number of wins (points) against teams already in the championships. As a result, advancement is predicated on accumulating enough points before the last at-large selection. Accordingly, the points below are the total number of wins against automatic qualifiers or teams selected in the at-large process before the last selection. Minimum, maximum, and average points are number seen in 5,000 simulations of the NCAA Tournament.



Received By BeatingChance ReceivedAverage If >0Average
Arkansas 100.0% 1.0 1.0
Texas 99.9% 1.0 1.0
Indiana 99.6% 1.0 1.0
Michigan 99.5% 1.0 1.0
Eastern Kentucky 99.4% 1.0 1.0
Syracuse 98.9% 1.0 1.0
Columbia 97.0% 1.0 1.0
North Carolina 96.8% 1.0 1.0
Notre Dame 95.9% 2.0 1.9
Providence 91.6% 1.0 0.9
Colorado St. 72.5% 1.0 0.7
Air Force 68.6% 2.0 1.4
Florida State 67.8% 1.0 0.7
Harvard 65.7% 1.0 0.7
Virginia 64.2% 1.0 0.6
Florida 59.3% 1.0 0.6
Georgia 55.0% 1.0 0.6
Dartmouth 23.0% 1.0 0.2
Georgetown 17.7% 1.0 0.2
Minnesota 17.1% 1.0 0.2
Washington 10.2% 1.0 0.1
Arizona State 8.9% 1.0 0.1
Tennessee 7.8% 1.0 0.1
Southern Utah 6.7% 1.0 0.1
North Carolina St. 5.2% 1.0 0.1
Illinois 4.7% 2.0 0.1
Boise State 3.3% 1.0 0.0
Butler 1.4% 1.0 0.0
UCLA 0.4% 1.0 0.0
Lamar 0.2% 1.0 0.0
Lipscomb 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Michigan State 0.1% 1.0 0.0
Louisville 0.0% 1.0 0.0
Missouri 0.0% 2.0 0.0
Total 17.1
Minimum 12.0
Maximum 22.0